The coming eReader BOOM

Since February Apple has introduced a new iPad, Barnes and Noble has debuted a new touch screen e-ink Nook, Kobo has also updated their eReader, and of course Amazon has given the world an eReader complete with advertising.

The 2010 holiday gift season provided librarians with a seemingly endless supply of new eReader users all clamoring for free content. When Amazon and Overdrive finally complete their deal "real soon now" the libraries on the receiving end won't know what hit them. Not a day goes by when I'm on the information desk that someone doesn't ask some question relating to eReading and the many devices that enable such activities.

Librarians attend countless training sessions, seminars, webinars, conferences, and meetings learning about and discussing the realm of eReading. I even teach some them. After having spent much of the last 15 years being involved in the eBook field as it relates to public libraries, I'm often asked; "Where is it all going?" Here are my top ten predictions for what we'll encounter in the remainder of 2011 in the eReading field.

10. Barnes and Noble will crack the $100 price point with the eInk Nook.

9. Amazon will also lower the price of the ad carrying Kindle to below the magic $100 figure.

8. Apple will not offer a cheaper iPad, but may throw in some free space in the new iCloud storage service.

7. Kobo will continue just fine even after Borders closes the doors for the last time.

6. There will be a continued proliferation of web tablets all trying to be the next or cheaper iPad. Only a few them will even make a real dent in the retail space, but for bargain hunters, there will be opportunities to get a portable device capable of functioning as an eReader cheaply.

5. People buying these bargain devices will quickly tire of them and buy a higher quality eReader or tablet when the opportunity presents itself.

4. Rumors of Amazon and/or Barnes and Noble giving their lowest price eReader to their best member/customers will come true in what may be an overall disappointing holiday sales season for retailers.

3. Despite the ongoing economic malaise, eReaders and tablets will sell well this holiday season.

2. We will not see a color eInk device in 2011. (I hope I'm wrong on this one.)

1. Between the Overdrive-Kindle deal and strong eReader sales in 2011, Libraries will see surging demands for eBooks in 2012.

The HarperCollins eBook Saga

I understand HarperCollins point from a business perspective. Essentially they want us to have to buy a new book after 25 circs. Realistically, most pop fiction books are pretty well used up after that many circs, and we’d be buying a new copy if it was something we wanted to keep around. In my opinion there aren’t that many non-fiction titles that even achieve 25 circs during a reasonable period of time before they’re just plain out of date. So I don’t think they’re that far off in their numbers. Their whole problem is that e-Books don’t wear out like paper books.

As a Librarian I hate that any publisher would stoop to that level of anti-library activity. As it is now if we can somehow keep a copy in circulation with 100 circs then we do, as long as it remains popular, relevant, and in good condition. In the real world where I work, that’s mighty tough to do in most cases.

They’re wrong, but not unreasonably wrong. Remember the old Div-x DVDS that expired after they were played a few times. A reasonable idea from the publisher’s perspective, but not one that worked for the consumer, and they died in the free marketplace. In this case as in that old one, the market economy will ultimately decide.

Just my thoughts,
Mike